There have been several notable space weather events in the last 200 years including the famous “Carrington” event in 1859. During this historic event, the most intense geomagnetic storm on record, northern lights were reported as far south as the Caribbean, and telegraph systems across North America and Europe sparked and failed, with some even catching fire. This suggests significant technological failure given a similar event today. Other notable disruptions have been observed in 1921, 1967, 1989, 2003 and 2012. The economic impacts from such events (e.g., through electricity supply interruptions, electronic equipment damage, potential aviation accidents) can be substantial. Additional information about these events can be found here.

• A study analyzed aircraft accident data spanning over a century (1919-2023), encompassing 1,959 total air crashes, and suggested a potential link between geomagnetic storms and a significant portion of these incidents. The findings indicated that geomagnetic storms may be related to 68% of crashes attributed to mechanical failure and pilot error, 22% of crashes due to unknown factors, 8% of crashes caused by poor weather, and 2% of crashes linked to turbulence. The effect of geomagnetic storms on aircraft accidents depend on seasonality, solar activity, and geomagnetic activity. The research indicated a peak in accidents during the equinoxes, specifically March and September (extending into early October), with the lowest frequency observed during the solstices in June and December. Additionally, the number of aircraft accidents was found to increase in the decreasing phase of solar activity cycles and depend on the number of storms that occurred during that phase. – Aksen, U., Göker, Ü., Timoçin, E., Akçay, C., & Ipek, M. (2024). The effect of geomagnetic storms on aircraft accidents between the years 1919-2023 in civil aviation. Advances in Space Research, 73(1), 807-830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2023.11.008  
• A study analyzing 11,242 insurance claims filed with Zurich North America between 2000 and 2010 revealed the impact of geomagnetic variability on North American commercial organizations. The claims analyzed were for damage to electrical and electronic equipment. The research concluded that large-scale geomagnetic variability couples into low-voltage power networks, causing equipment malfunctions. Specifically, the study found that claim rates were approximately 20% higher on the top 5% of geomagnetically active days. Overall, 4% of the claims were linked to the effects of geomagnetic activity. Using Zurich North America’s market share, the study estimated that around 500 claims per year across North America could be attributed to damage to electrical/electronic equipment caused by geomagnetic activity. – Schrijver, C. J., Dobbins, R., Murtagh, W., & Petrinec, S. M. (2014). Assessing the impact of space weather on the electric power grid based on insurance claims for industrial electrical equipment. Space Weather, 12(7), 487-498. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/2014SW001066 
• A study investigated the potential daily economic losses to the U.S. associated with failures in electricity transmission infrastructure caused by extreme space weather, focusing on the loss of sales revenue for affected businesses. The study modeled several blackout scenarios due to geomagnetic storms:
  • Low-impact Scenario (Storm within 55°2.75° geomagnetic latitude): This scenario affected 8% of the U.S. population and resulted in an estimated potential economic loss of $6.2 billion (2011$) per day, equivalent to 15% of the daily U.S. GDP.
  • High-impact Scenario (Storm within 50°7.75° geomagnetic latitude): This scenario affected 66% of the population and resulted in an estimated potential economic loss of $41.5 billion (2011$) per day, representing 100% of the daily U.S. GDP.

These estimates were based on two critical assumptions: (1) the number of electricity customers equals the total population of a state, and (2) all economic activities depend entirely on electricity, leading states in the scenario to incur a 100% blackout and a corresponding 100% loss in state GDP.  – Oughton, E. J., Skelton, A., Horne, R. B., Thomson, A. W. P., & Gaunt, C. T. (2017). Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure. Space Weather, 15(1), 65-83. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/2016SW001491 

A study analyzed the direct and indirect economic impacts of simulated space weather events similar to that which occurred during the March 1989 geomagnetic disturbance in Quebec. The study estimated that an event with a similar magnitude of impact would cause a 10% reduction in electricity supply and lead to direct economic damages in the U.S. of $2.65 billion (2013$) per day. The study further estimated that a Carrington event impacting the U.S. near New York could result in direct domestic economic damage of approximately $1.2 trillion over a five-month period. Globally, the estimated economic impacts ranged from $2.4 to $3.4 trillion over one year, with the total shock dependent on the storm’s location. Importantly, about 50% of the total economic impact would affect countries outside the immediate zone of direct influence, resulting in an overall loss of global GDP between 3.9% and 5.6%. – Schulte in den Bäumen, H., Moran, D., Lenzen, M., Cairns, I., & Steenge, A. (2014). How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14(10), 2749-2759. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2749-2014