NOAA plays a key risk management role, providing information to the public on forecasts of winter weather including advisories, watches, and warnings. Additional information on how NOAA supports public safety and awareness during winter weather events is described below:

• The National Weather Service (NWS) issues winter advisories which can inform people about approaching adverse weather and risky driving conditions, potentially mitigating vehicular accidents.
  • Using county-date level data on winter advisories, snow forecasts, weather station observations, and vehicle crashes for 11 U.S. states (in the Midwest and Northeast) between 2008-2018, a study found that an additional hour of lead time on winter advisories reduced daily crashes by nearly 0.75%. Using existing lead times on winter advisories, this translated to a reduction of approximately 13 crashes per 100,000 people annually–an economic savings (which accounts for property damage, physical injury, death, lost productivity, and congestion) of nearly $190 million (2018$) in the studied sample. These savings were driven by reductions in individual travel and intensification of road maintenance operations. – Anand, V. (2024). Does Getting Forecasts Earlier Matter? Evidence from Winter Advisories and Vehicle Crashes. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (Forthcoming). https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4206910 
• A Nor’easter, a storm along the East Coast of North America, gets its name from the winds over the coastal area that are typically from the northeast. These storms may happen at any time of year but are most frequent and most violent between September and April. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters issue winter storm, blizzard, high wind, and coastal flood watches to alert the public of when conditions are conducive for Nor’easters.
• Heavy accumulations of ice can bring down trees and topple utility poles and communication towers. Ice can disrupt communications and power for days while utility companies repair extensive damage. Even small accumulations of ice can be extremely dangerous to motorists and pedestrians. Bridges and overpasses are particularly dangerous because they freeze before other surfaces. NWS forecasts alert the public to potentially hazardous ice conditions to increase public safety and preparedness.
• Lake Effect Snow is common across the Great Lakes region during the late fall and winter. Lake Effect snow occurs when cold air, often originating from Canada, moves across the open waters of the Great Lakes. Because the conditions producing the snow can persist for several days, snowfall amounts can be huge, often measured in feet and not inches. NWS forecasts alert the public to the potential for extreme snowfall when conditions are conducive to Lake Effect snow. 
• Extremely cold air comes every winter in at least part of the country. Millions of people are affected across the United States as arctic air and brisk winds produce dangerously cold wind-chill values. Frostbite can occur in a matter of minutes to people exposed to extreme cold. Hypothermia–when the body loses heat faster than it can produce heat– is another threat during extreme cold. The NWS provides forecasts and guidance on what to do before, during, and after extremely cold weather.
• In addition to its suite of forecasts, the NWS provides other relevant information and interpretative services (Impact-Based Decision Support Services, or IDSS) to emergency personnel and public safety officials to prepare the public for severe winter storms.
  • Among the IDSS is the Winter Storm Severity Index, intended to communicate the severity of potential winter-weather impacts on various aspects of daily life – reduced mobility on roadways or other transportation systems, utility disruptions or outages, school or business delays or closures, and damage to vegetation or built structures. The index provides easy to understand graphics and takes into account six components: snow amount, snow load, blowing snow, ground blizzard, ice accumulation, and flash freeze (see the details here).
  • A case study in NY evaluated the socioeconomic value of IDSS by comparing a December 2010 winter storm that occurred before IDSS implementation to a 2016 storm that occurred after IDSS implementation. Implementation of IDSS was shown to provide value to the economy by reducing (1) the number of costly flight cancellations, (2) delays in ground transportation, and (3) the number of customers affected by power outages.
    • Flight cancellations due to weather were reduced from 50.2% in 2010 to 40.1% in 2016, and costs to airlines and customers were reduced from $60.8 million (2016$) in 2010 to $43.3 million in 2016.
    • Recovery time in ground transportation (roadways, buses, subways and rail) was reduced from 7 days in 2010 to 2 days in 2016 through fewer delays and severe road blocks, and moving from reactive to proactive service.
    • The number of customers affected by power outages was reduced from approximately 76,930 in 2010 to 30,690 in 2016 and the average duration of power outages was reduced from 12.2 hours to 4.8 hours. This resulted in a cost reduction to customers from $106.8 million (2016$) in 2010 to $14.7 million in 2016. – Lazo, J. K., Hosterman, H. R., Sprague-Hilderbrand, J. M., & Adkins, J. E. (2020). Impact-Based Decision Support Services and the Socioeconomic Impacts of Winter Storms. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(5), E626-E639. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0153.1 

Why It Matters:

Aviation Impacts

• Winter weather can lead to costly aviation fatalities:
  • In the United States, between 1975-2011, winter precipitation was a factor in a total of 1,316 aviation fatalities. The number of aviation fatalities related to winter precipitation ranged from a low of 4 in 2010 to a high of 139 in 1982. They were concentrated in the western United States, with relatively few fatalities east of the Rocky Mountains. These findings were based on the National Transportation Safety Board’s Aviation Accident databases.  – Black, A. W., & Mote, T. L. (2015). Characteristics of Winter-Precipitation-Related Transportation Fatalities in the United States. Weather Climate and Society, 7(2), 133-145. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00011.1 

Property Impacts

• • Winter weather events can lead to costly damage to property:
    • In Miami-Dade County, Florida, between 1979 and 2019, nine winter weather events resulted in at least $36.58 million (2019$) in property damages. – Ali, J., Wahl, T., Enriquez, A. R., Rashid, M. M., Morim, J., Gall, M., & Emrich, C. T. (2023). The role of compound climate and weather extreme events in creating socio-economic impacts in South Florida. Weather and Climate Extremes, 42, Article 100625. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100625

• The property damage (building, electric power, water systems, and telecommunications) from a simulated severe winter storm scenario  in California called ARkStorm was estimated to cost between $350.0-$382.4 billion (2007$). The ARkStorm was set to begin on January 19, 2011, last for several weeks, and produce precipitation similar to the 1861-62 series of storms, which were the largest and longest California storms in the historic record. – Wing, I. S., Rose, A. Z., & Wein, A. M. (2016). Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario. Natural Hazards Review, 17(4), Article Unsp a4015002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000173

• The property damage from landslides caused by ARkStorm was estimated to cost approximately $600 million (2000$). The ARkStorm was set to begin on January 19, 2011, last for several weeks, and produce precipitation similar to the 1861-62 series of storms, which were the largest and longest California storms in the historic record. This finding was based on an extrapolation from local landslide damages to private property in past storms (including a 1978 storm in Los Angeles and various storms in the San Francisco Bay Area) using a statewide landslide susceptibility map. – Wills, C., Perez, F., & Branum, D. (2016). New Method for Estimating Landslide Losses from Major Winter Storms in California and Application to the ARkStorm Scenario. Natural Hazards Review, 17(4), Article Unsp a4014001. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000142  

• A study examined the intensity and impacts of winter storms using NOAA’s data on 70 storm events from 2001 to 2014 on coastal counties in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York, focusing on how different storm hazards like wind, precipitation, and flooding contribute to property damage. The study estimated that total property damages for these states from all storms was $372.7 million (not adjusted for inflation). The losses per storm depended on the type of hazard with multiple-hazard storm events leading to greater losses. Losses for a multiple-hazard storm event cost an estimated $26.3 million, while losses for a snowfall, storm tide, precipitation, and wind-related winter storm cost an estimated $7.2 million, $0.7 million, $0.9 million, and $0.6 million, respectively. – Shimkus, C. E., Ting, M., Booth, J. F., Adamo, S. B., Madajewicz, M., Kushnir, Y., & Rieder, H. E. (2017). Winter storm intensity, hazards, and property losses in the New York tristate area. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1400(1), 65-80. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13396 

Agricultural Impacts

• Winter weather events can lead to costly damage to agriculture:
  • The agricultural property damage from a simulated severe winter storm scenario in California called ARkStorm was estimated to cost between $1.2-$3.6 billion (2007$). The ARkStorm was set to begin on January 19, 2011, last for several weeks, and produce precipitation similar to the 1861-62 series of storms, which were the largest and longest California storms in the historic record. – Wing, I. S., Rose, A. Z., & Wein, A. M. (2016). Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario. Natural Hazards Review, 17(4), Article Unsp a4015002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000173
  • In Miami-Dade County, Florida, between 1979 and 2019, nine winter weather events resulted in at least $344.72 million (2019$) in crop damages. Eight of these winter weather events were compound events (where both minimum temperature and wind exceeded 95% thresholds), which were responsible for all crop damages.  – Ali, J., Wahl, T., Enriquez, A. R., Rashid, M. M., Morim, J., Gall, M., & Emrich, C. T. (2023). The role of compound climate and weather extreme events in creating socio-economic impacts in South Florida. Weather and Climate Extremes, 42, Article 100625. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100625

Transportation Impacts

• Winter weather conditions can make driving on the road more hazardous and lead to a greater number of vehicular accidents and fatalities:
  • In the United States, between 1975-2011, winter precipitation was a factor in a total of 31,159 motor vehicle fatalities. The number of motor vehicle fatalities ranged from a low of 535 in 2006 to a high of 1,158 in 1996. Motor vehicle fatalities were concentrated in the western United States, in the Northeast, and in the Great Lakes region. These findings were based on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System.  – Black, A. W., & Mote, T. L. (2015). Characteristics of Winter-Precipitation-Related Transportation Fatalities in the United States. Weather Climate and Society, 7(2), 133-145. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00011.1 
  • In the contiguous United States between 1975 and 2000, the fatality rate among drivers through motor vehicle crashes during snowfall (after adjusting for reduced vehicle traffic) was found to be 18% higher when compared to the rate during dry conditions. Additionally, crashes involving non-fatal injuries and property damage are higher by 23% and 45%, respectively. These findings were based on analyses linking daily state-level National Highway Traffic Safety Administration vehicle crash rate data to National Climatic Data Center’s Cooperative Summary of the Day snowfall data. – Eisenberg, D., & Warner, K. E. (2005). Effects of snowfalls on motor vehicle collisions, injuries, and fatalities. American Journal of Public Health, 95(1), 120-124. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2004.048926  
  • A study found that winter weather events in North Carolina between 2013-2019 were associated with 14,064 exposures (unprotected contact with hazardous winter conditions) and 21,274 excess collisions costing a total of $2.62 billion or $374 million per year (2023$). Additionally, the study found a protective effect within the immediate three days following an adverse winter weather event, with an 8.2% reduction in predicted collisions. These findings were based on NCDOT’s Traffic Count Database System’s (daily county-level) traffic collision data and winter weather events captured in NOAA’s storm events database.  – Burnett, I., & Harrison, J. (2025). The Cost of Weather-Related Traffic Collisions. Weather Climate and Society, 17(3), 387-411. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-24-0097.1 
  • A study that examined the impact of snow on crash risk, traffic volume, and toll revenue on the New York State Thruway from 2010-2019 found that every 5.1 cm of snowfall resulted in an additional crash (except in Buffalo where it resulted in an additional 2.6 crashes). Additionally, every 2.5 cm of snow resulted in a reduction in passenger revenue by 3-5% and commercial revenue by 1-4%, which was estimated to cost the New York State Thruway approximately $1,300 at each toll barrier and about $331 (not adjusted for inflation) at each exit (due to reductions in passenger and commercial vehicle traffic) per day. – Call, D. A., & Flynt, G. A. (2022). The Impact of Snowfall on Crashes, Traffic Volume, and Revenue on the New York State Thruway. Weather Climate and Society, 14(1), 131-141. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0074.1 

• A study analyzed fatal motor-vehicle crashes linked to winter weather in the United States from 2008 to 2019. The study identified hazardous winter-weather conditions (i.e., during active winter precipitation or on icy, slushy, or snowy roadway surfaces) leading up to crashes and examined the public safety messaging associated with these events. The study found that winter weather was responsible for approximately 1,000 fatalities on U.S.roadways each year (primarily in the Northeast, Central, and East-North-Central climate regions), totaling 11,966 winter weather-related fatalities over the entire period. With regards to public messaging and official warnings, only one-third (33.2%) of all winter-weather-related fatalities had a National Weather Service (NWS) Winter Weather Warning, Watch, or Advisory (WSW) in effect at the time of the crash. – Tobin, D. M., Reeves, H. D., Gibson, M. N., & Rosenow, A. A. (2022). Weather Conditions and Messaging Associated with Fatal Winter-Weather-Related Motor-Vehicle Crashes. Weather Climate and Society, 14(3), 835-848. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0112.1 

Electricity Impacts

• Winter weather can put a strain on electricity demand and potentially lead to costly blackouts:
  • According to a survey of residential electricity customers across the northeast United States, respondents were willing to pay between $1.7-$2.3 per kWh (2018$) to sustain private electricity demands (obtaining a low-amperage resilient back-up service) in the event of a 10-day blackout during very cold winter weather. Additionally, respondents were willing to pay between $19-$29 per day to support their communities’ electricity demand during the event. – Baik, S., Davis, A. L., Park, J. W., Sirinterlikci, S., & Morgan, M. G. (2020). Estimating what US residential customers are willing to pay for resilience to large electricity outages of long duration. Nature Energy, 5(3), 250-258. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0581-1  
  • A case study estimated that the economic cost (i.e., loss to GDP) resulting from a February 2021 Texas power outage caused by a severe winter storm was approximately $664 million (2019$). The industries most vulnerable to these losses were oil and gas extraction (18% of GDP loss), utilities (11% of GDP loss), and petroleum and coal products (7% of GDP loss). – Bhattacharyya, A., & Hastak, M. (2022). Indirect Cost Estimation of Winter Storm–Induced Power Outage in Texas. Journal of Management in Engineering, 38(6), 04022057. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0001084 

Employment and Housing Impacts

• Winter weather can have an impact on the economy through effects on employment and housing: 
  • A study measured the impacts from snow and temperature on economic activity (e.g., employment, nonfarm payrolls, housing permits, housing starts, and new unemployment insurance claims). Using snow and temperature indices generated at the state-by-month-level, a standard deviation increase in the temperature index during winter was found to grow nonfarm employment by 0.04% while a standard deviation increase in the snowfall index was found to reduce nonfarm employment by 0.03%. Construction, hospitality, and, to a lesser extent, retail industry employment were particularly affected. Similarly, a standard deviation change to either snowfall or temperature was found to impact new claims by about 1% and housing starts and permits by 1–2%. These effects were found to be short-lived with the economy bouncing back within a month or two (with the exception of nonfarm employment reductions which were found to persist for more than three months).These findings were based on U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperature and snowfall data from 1950-2014 and Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Establishment Survey economic data. – Bloesch, J., & Gourio, F. (2015). The effect of winter weather on US economic activity. Economic Perspectives, 39(1). https://ssrn.com/abstract=2598559 

Labor Productivity Impacts

• Winter weather can lead to a reduction in labor productivity with people working fewer hours:
  • A study used monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) data from 2004–2014 covering 265 metropolitan areas to examine how snowfall affected work hours. The study found that an average of one inch snowfall per day reduced work hours by about one hour. This reduction was especially pronounced in the Southern United States and among construction workers, indicating strong regional and industry-specific differences. Most of the work hours lost during large snowfall events were not compensated for in subsequent weeks. A “back‑of‑an‑envelope” estimate suggested that, on an average year, snowfall led to a 0.15% loss in annual hours worked for all workers. – Liu, B., & Hirsch, B. T. (2021). Winter weather and work hours: Heterogeneous effects and regional adaptation. Contemporary Economic Policy, 39(4), 867-881. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12516 

Business Impacts

• Unexpected severe winter weather can disrupt businesses’ financial channels and increase their operating costs. To overcome these issues, financially solvent small firms rely extensively on credit lines and lenders charge borrowers a premium for this liquidity. 
  • A study found that, between 2012-2016, a one-standard-deviation increase in average snow cover resulted in an annual cash flow decrease of approximately 0.22% of total assets. The most affected sectors were within transportation, real estate, construction, and retail (industries that tended to operate outdoors). Banks may work with firms to adjust available credit in response to weather-induced cash flow impacts. A $1 reduction in cash flow due to winter weather was associated with an approximately $0.53 increase in end-of-year credit line size. However, firms may be charged a premium for these loans. A 1% reduction in cash flow due to weather was found to increase interest rates by approximately 0.05% (or 5 basis percentage points). These findings were based on (1) NOAA’s county-level daily snow cover data, and (2) the Federal Reserve’s Y-14Q bank loan portfolio data which contains information on corporate loans (e.g., credit line limits, credit line utilization, and bank loan characteristics) in excess of $1 million. – Brown, J. R., Gustafson, M. T., & Ivanov, I. T. (2021). Weathering Cash Flow Shocks. The Journal of Finance, 76(4), 1731-1772. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13024 
  • The business interruption losses (e.g., losses of building function, productivity of agricultural land, electric power, water systems, and telecommunications) from a simulated severe winter storm in California called ARkStorm amounted to $405.6 billion relative to projected GDP (the business-as-usual GDP trajectory in the absence of a catastrophic storm) and $67.1 billion (2007$) relative to observed GDP in the six months prior to the event. When accounting for business resilience through production recapture (e.g., working overtime or extra shift), losses amounted to only $377.3 billion relative to projected GDP and $43.6 billion relative to observed GDP in the six months prior to the event. These findings were based on an ARkStorm that was set to begin on January 19, 2011, last for several weeks, and produce precipitation similar to the 1861-62 series of storms, which were the largest and longest California storms in the historic record. – Wing, I. S., Rose, A. Z., & Wein, A. M. (2016). Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario. Natural Hazards Review, 17(4), Article Unsp a4015002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000173