Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

Hurricanes, a type of tropical cyclone, are powerful storms that can cause extensive damage along coasts because of strong winds, storm surge flooding, and heavy rainfall. NOAA has been issuing forecasts and warnings when storms appear as well as conducting research to better understand and predict the lifespan of hurricanes.

NOAA’s Role: 

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) is responsible for issuing forecasts and U.S. watches/warnings for tropical cyclones. NHC has a long history of issuing advisories for tropical cyclones, with the first known recorded forecast being in 1954, when 24-hour predictions of a storm’s track were made.  Since then forecasts have expanded out to 5 days and now include predictions of intensity, size, and associated hazards, such as wind, storm surge, and rainfall.  The lead times and accuracy of tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings have increased to give the public additional time to prepare for these potentially devastating events.

There has been a steady reduction in the track forecast errors over time, with the average errors in the current decade about 30-40% smaller than they were in the 2000s and about half of the size (or even smaller) than they were in the 1990s. – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2018). The state of hurricane forecasting. Retrieved Feb 20, 2021.

NOAA also plays an important role in protecting coastal ecosystems and infrastructure that can help to mitigate the damage caused by a variety of natural hazards that threaten coastal communities such as hurricanes.

Why It Matters

• In 2008 18.3% of the US population, more than 55.5 million people, lived in coastal counties along the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Coast. The population in these hurricane-prone areas continue to grow at a faster rate than the nation as a whole. – Wilson, S.G and T.R. Fischetti (2010) Coastline Population Trends in the United States: 1960 to 2008: Population Estimates and Projections. Economics and Statistics Administration, US Census Bureau, US Dept of Commerce.
• A study of the effect of 12-hour-ahead forecasts on hurricane damages in the U.S. and found that larger errors in the storm’s predicted landfall location lead to higher damages. It estimated that the cumulative reduction in damages from hurricane forecast improvements since 1970 has been about $82 billion. This exceeds the U.S. government’s spending on these forecasts and private willingness to pay for them. – Martinez, A.B (2020) Forecast accuracy matters for hurricane damages. Econometrics 8(2), 18
• Stock options on U.S. public, non-financial firms with establishments exposed to a hurricane landfall region exhibited increases in implied volatility of 5-10 percent, reflecting impact uncertainty. For property and casualty insurance firms, implied volatility increased by as much as 40 percent. – Kruttli, Mathias S., Brigitte Roth Tran, and Sumudu W. Watugala (2019). Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics. Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-054. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
• The protection of coastal ecosystems is vital as a defense against potential damages from hurricanes. For example, coastal wetlands prevented more than $625 million in property damages during Hurricane Sandy (2012) and reduced property damages throughout the Northeast by 10% on average. In New Jersey, wetlands reduced more than $425 million in property damages. In Maryland, wetlands reduced damages by 29%. – Narayan, S., Beck, M.W., Wilson, P., Thomas, C., Guerrero, A., Shepard, C., Reguero, B.G., Franco, G., Ingram, C.J., Trespalacios, D. 2016. Coastal Wetlands and Flood Damage Reduction: Using Risk Industry-based Models to Assess Natural Defenses in the Northeastern USA. Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation, London.
• According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), “the expected annual losses caused by hurricane winds and storm-related flooding total $54 billion. This is equivalent to 0.3% of the nation’s current gross domestic product. This total consists of $34 billion in expected annual economic losses to the residential sector, $9 billion to commercial businesses, and $12 billion to the public sector. Under current conditions and policies, the expected annual cost to the federal government—and thus to taxpayers—of damage from hurricane winds and storm-related flooding is $17 billion for the major categories of spending that CBO analyzed”. – Congressional Budget Office (2019). Expected Costs of Damage From Hurricane Winds and Storm-Related Flooding.
• A survey of the general public living within 30 miles of the coast in Miami, Florida found that the average household surveyed was willing to pay approximately $13 per year for improvements in forecast attributes such as landfall time and position, wind speed, and storm surge. Extrapolating this study to all of the households in hurricane-prone areas implies a value of aprox $340 million. – Lazo, J.K., Waldman, D.M. (2011). Valuing improved hurricane forecasts. Economics Letters.
• According to a report by CoreLogic, in 2020 there were “7,110,779 single-family residences and 252,657 multifamily residences at risk of storm surge in the United States. The reconstruction cost value (the cost to rebuild a house assuming complete destruction) for single family residences topped $1.7 trillion, while for multifamily residences it topped $95 billion”. – CoreLogic (2020) Storm Surge Report.
• Even smaller hurricanes can cause massive destruction. For example, Hurricane Florence (2018) was a category 1 hurricane that made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, and caused extensive damages. The storm’s extremely slow progression inland and heavy rainfall resulted in catastrophic flooding. The storm, together with riverine flooding and storm surge caused over 50 fatalities, approximately 2,600 rescues, and 15,000 people to seek emergency shelter. There were an estimated $17 billion in damages to residences, businesses and industry. – ISET International (2019). Hurricane Florence: Building resilience for the new normal, Zurich North America.

References

•  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2018). The state of hurricane forecasting. Retrieved Feb 20, 2021.
• Martinez, A.B (2020) Forecast accuracy matters for hurricane damages. Econometrics 8(2), 18
• Wilson, S.G and T.R. Fischetti (2010) Coastline Population Trends in the United States: 1960 to 2008: Population Estimates and Projections. Economics and Statistics Administration, US Census Bureau, US Dept of Commerce.
• Kruttli, Mathias S., Brigitte Roth Tran, and Sumudu W. Watugala (2019). Pricing Poseidon: Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics. Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-054. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
•  Narayan, S., Beck, M.W., Wilson, P., Thomas, C., Guerrero, A., Shepard, C., Reguero, B.G., Franco, G., Ingram, C.J., Trespalacios, D. 2016. Coastal Wetlands and Flood Damage Reduction: Using Risk Industry-based Models to Assess Natural Defenses in the Northeastern USA. Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation, London.
•  Congressional Budget Office (2019). Expected Costs of Damage From Hurricane Winds and Storm-Related Flooding.
•  Lazo, J.K., Waldman, D.M. (2011). Valuing improved hurricane forecasts. Economics Letters.
• CoreLogic (2020) Storm Surge Report.
• ISET International (2019). Hurricane Florence: Building resilience for the new normal, Zurich North America.

Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flash Flooding

A thunderstorm releases lightning, usually caused by convection through surface heating, that causes fires and fatalities, hail that can cause damage to property and injure livestock and people, and strong winds that can knock down trees, power lines, and devastate homes. As thunderstorms worsen to tornadoes, even the most resilient structures are at risk. The most significant risk to human life from a thunderstorm, however, is flooding which claims more lives per year than the previously mentioned phenomena combined.  A thunderstorm is classified as “severe” when it contains one or more of the following: hail one inch or greater, winds gusting in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), or a tornado.

 NOAA’s Role:

• The NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), located in Norman, Oklahoma, serves the nation by working to improve the lead time and accuracy of severe weather warnings and forecasts to save lives and reduce property damage. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC), also in Norman, focuses on providing timely and accurate forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. NSSL and SPC coordinate with local NOAA Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to issue local public, marine, aviation, fire, and hydrology forecasts. Each WFO has a geographic area of responsibility known as a county warning area (CWA). The SPC issues Severe Storm and Tornado watches to identify conditions favorable to these events while local WFOS issue severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings for phenomena that have been spotted or indicated by radar. These two offices also coordinate to issue flood watches (weather favorable for a flood), warnings (flood hazard is imminent), and advisories (when the weather event may become a nuisance).
• NOAA issues severe thunderstorm watches and warnings through the NOAA Storm Prediction Center. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued by meteorologists who watch the weather 24/7 across the entire U.S. for weather conditions that are favorable for severe thunderstorms. A watch can cover parts of a state or several states. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued by your local NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Office meteorologists who watch a designated area 24/7 for severe weather that has been reported by spotters or indicated by radar. Warnings mean there is a serious threat to life and property to those in the path of the storm. Hail, lightning, and damaging winds are included through these warnings. More information on thunderstorms can be found here.
• A tornado is a narrow, violently rotating column of air that extends from a thunderstorm to the ground and are among the most violent phenomena of all atmospheric storms. A Tornado watch is also issued by NOAA Storm Prediction Center meteorologists who watch the weather 24/7 across the entire U.S. for weather conditions that are favorable for tornadoes and severe weather. A Tornado Warning is issued by your local NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Office meteorologists who watch the weather 24/7 over a designated area. This means a tornado has been reported by spotters or indicated by radar and there is a serious threat to life and property to those in the path of the tornado. More information on tornadoes is found here.
• Flooding is an overflowing of water onto land that is normally dry. Floods can happen during heavy rains, when ocean waves come on shore, when snow melts quickly, or when dams or levees break. Flash floods occur when heavy rainfall exceeds the ability of the ground to absorb it and can happen within minutes, limiting the time available to warn and protect the public. A Flash Flood Warning is issued when a flash flood is imminent or occurring. A Flood Warning is issued when the hazardous weather event is imminent or already happening. A Flood watch is issued when conditions are favorable for a specific hazardous weather event to occur. A Flood Advisory is issued when a specific weather event that is forecast to occur may become a nuisance. More information on flood watches and warnings can be found here.
• The general public is made aware of tornado warnings through sirens, NOAA Weather Radios, Revers-911 Calling System, Television/FM/AM radio alerts, and cell phone and text alerts. A 2008 local government meta-analysis found these early warning systems are linked to saving lives, given the immediacy and quick onset of a tornado event. A Florida case study (Collins et al, 2008) was used to establish that even without defensive investments or shelters, warning communications allowed state residents to shelter indoors away from windows. – Collins, Matthew & Kapucu, Naim. (2008). Early Warning Systems and Disaster Preparedness and Response in Local Government. Disaster Prevention and Management – DISASTER PREV MANAG. 17. 587-600. 

Why It Matters

• NOAA’s “Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters” identifies 128 severe storm events between 1980 and 2020 in the United States that each cost more than a billion dollars (2020 USD, CPI-adjusted) and caused a total of 1,762 deaths. At this rate,  severe storms cost $7 billion each year and take the lives of 43 people. The same analysis identifies 33 flooding events, not attributed to hurricanes or tropical cyclones, exceeding the billion-dollar threshold in the same 40 year timespan with 617 deaths. Annually, these high-cost floods amount to $3.7 billion in damage and 15 deaths. – Smith, A. (n.d.). Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: Summary stats. Retrieved Feb 20, 2021
• There were 1,075 tornadoes in 2020 in the United States with 76 related deaths. Two major storms accounted for most deaths with 30 people perishing in April tornadoes through Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee and 25 killed in March through central Tennessee.
• The Insurance Information Institute (III) catalogues Natural Catastrophe Losses in the United States for 2019 and provides a summary report on its website. In the 2019 report, the III reports 49 severe thunderstorms with 70 fatalities, $1.3 billion in overall damage and $20.3 billion in insurance losses. The 2019 report also identifies nine flash floods that incurred 7 fatalities and caused $10.1 billion in overall damages with $200 million in insurance losses. – Insurance Information Institute, Inc. (2020, Web retrieval on March 8, 2021) Facts + Statistics: Tornadoes and thunderstorms
• In 2010, lightning strikes caused more than $1 billion (2010 USD) in insured losses. These losses ranged from damage to expensive electronic equipment to structural fires that destroyed entire homes. There were more than 213,000 lightning claims in 2010 with an average cost per lightning claim of $4,846. The average cost per lightning claim rose more than 80 percent from 2004 to 2010, even as the actual number of lightning claims fell by a little over 23 percent in the six-year period. The total amount of insured losses caused by lightning strikes also rose 40 percent during that time. – Insurance Information Institute. (2011, June 21). Claim Costs From Lightning Continue to Rise; the Culprit Is Often Expensive Electronics. Press Release.
•     According to the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses for the United States (SHELDUS)[JG3]  database, a total of $107.8 billion in direct property damage from flooding (73 percent of the national total) was incurred in urban areas, affecting 20,141 urban counties, from 1960 to 2016. Over that period, the average annual flood loss was $1.9 billion. –National Academies of Sciences. Framing the Challenge of Urban Flooding in the United States. Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2019 Mar 29. Magnitude of Urban Flooding.
•     Issuing correct and actionable weather advisories in advance of a severe event is a tradeoff between correctly detecting the phenomena[JG4]  and issuing a false alarm, colloquially ‘crying wolf.’ NOAA National Weather Service tornado false-alarm ratio (FAR) have the potential to increase fatalities by training the public to ignore severe weather advisories such as tornado watches and warnings. Simmons and Sutter estimate a change in one standard deviation to the false alarm ratio to increase expected fatalities between 12-29%. –Simmons, K. M., & Sutter, D. (2009). False Alarms, Tornado Warnings, and Tornado Casualties, Weather, Climate, and Society, 1(1), 38-53.
•  
• References
• Smith, A., and J. Matthews, 2015: Quantifying Uncertainty and Variable Sensitivity within the U.S. Billion-dollar Weather and Climate Disaster Cost Estimates. Natural Hazards.
• Insurance Information Institute, Inc. (2020, Web retrieval on March 8, 2021) Facts + Statistics: Tornadoes and thunderstorms
• Insurance Information Institute. (2011, June 21). Claim Costs From Lightning Continue to Rise; the Culprit Is Often Expensive Electronics. Press Release.
• National Academies of Sciences. Framing the Challenge of Urban Flooding in the United States. Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2019 Mar 29. Magnitude of Urban Flooding.
• Simmons, K. M., & Sutter, D. (2009). False Alarms, Tornado Warnings, and Tornado Casualties, Weather, Climate, and Society, 1(1), 38-53.

Aviation Weather

While neither NOAA nor the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) can control Mother Nature, they can use a wide range of tools available at their disposal to mitigate weather-related effects on the flying public. FAA and its aviation industry partners use various tools and programs to ensure the safety and on-time arrival of passengers; NOAA plays a significant role by providing weather information and forecasting aviation hazards.

NOAA’s Role

• NOAA delivers tailored weather forecasts for both the commercial and private aviation industries to use as they route planes around dangerous weather every day. NOAA aviation meteorologists work alongside FAA colleagues to ensure that any rapid changes in weather are quickly communicated to pilots in the sky. 
• NOAA’s Aviation Weather Center (AWC) provides consistent, timely, and accurate weather information for both domestic and international airspace and forecasts aviation hazards. Weather information and forecasts are delivered through text and graphical forecasts at aviationweather.gov. AWC produces more than 8,000 graphic products daily for thunderstorms, icing, and turbulence used by the aviation industry to supplement primary aviation forecasts. See NOAA Celebrates 200 Years.
• AWC hosts the popular Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS), where pilots can gain general awareness of real-time weather conditions by visiting easily identifiable links to various aviation hazards. 
• AWC designed a one-stop shopping at the ‘Standard Briefing’ webpage with links to many NOAA’s aviation weather products to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards.
• NOAA’s 122 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) issue more than 4,000 aviation weather forecasts each day and provide 575 airports with almost 2,500 aviation weather forecasts and nearly 1,300 in-flight forecasts daily. See NOAA Celebrates 200 Years.
• NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) products pertinent to Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC) include:
• METARS: Aviation Routine Weather Reports. Provide hourly observations at many airports including the observed cloud and visibility conditions and can be displayed in text or graphic formats.
• Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): WFOs issue forecasts that are valid for 24-30 hours for an area within 5 statute miles of the center of the airport. These forecasts include information on wind, visibility, cloud cover and the type of precipitation expected and can also be displayed in text or graphic formats.
• AIRMET/G-AIRMET: AIRMETs or Graphical-AIRMETS are weather advisories potentially hazardous to all flights but do not meet the criteria for a SIGMET, or Significant Meteorological Information. AIRMETS, or Airmen’s Meteorological Information, are issued for IFR/Mountain Obscuration, Turbulence, and Icing four times per day and are valid for up to six hours. G-AIRMETS are a graphical snapshot of the AIRMET information and are only valid at a specified time.
• There are 150 volcanoes in the U.S. considered to be active, most of which are in Alaska; some are in Hawaii and throughout western U.S. Among the nine ICAO Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs), two are located in Alaska and Washington, D.C. Meteorologists in these centers monitor the status of active volcanoes, track volcanic ash in the atmosphere during eruptions, and issue advisories and warnings for airborne ash and ashfall. See NOAA NWS Volcanic Ash and Ashfall. The Washington VAAC provides the current volcanic ash advisories at NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS) website. 

Why It Matters

• Every day, FAA’s Air Traffic Organization (ATO) provides service to more than 45,000 flights and 2.9 million airline passengers across more than 29 million square miles of airspace.  – Federal Aviation Administration (2020). “Air Traffic by the Numbers.”
• According to FAA statistics in 2018, inclement weather, including thunderstorms, snowstorms, wind shear, icing and fog, creates potentially hazardous conditions in the National Airspace System (NAS). In an average year, inclement weather is the cause for nearly 70% of all delays. – Jones, Tammy L. (2020) Fact sheet – inclement weather. Federal Aviation Administration, Retrieved Feb 29, 2021
• Volcanic ash is a hazard to aircraft because it can cause a degraded engine performance (including flameout), loss of visibility, and failure of critical navigational and operational instruments. While an aircraft encountering a dense plume can potentially incur up to $80 million in maintenance costs, an aircraft exposed to a less dense volcanic ash cloud can incur long-term increased maintenance costs for the engines and external surfaces. – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2007, August). National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation (FCM-P35-2007). Department of Commerce.
• The cost to an airline for an hour of delay ranges from about $1,400 to $4,500, while the value of a passenger’s time ranges from $35 to $63 per hour, according to a 2018 FAA estimate.This shows that delays cost billions of dollars each year to airlines and their passengers. –  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2007, August). National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation (FCM-P35-2007). Department of Commerce.
• Using the Core 30 Airports, FAA reported the total number of all flight delays to be 299,244 in 2019, a 15% increase from 2018, resulting in a total cost of $33 billion. (ibid) Based on FAA data, weather-related flight delays are estimated to account for 209,471 of all delays (or 70%) and $23.1 billion of the associated cost. This cost was incurred by airlines ($5.8 billion), passengers ($12.7 billion), lost demand due to passengers avoiding future air travel ($1.7 billion), and an indirect cost associated with other business sectors that depend on air transportation ($2.9 billion). – Federal Aviation Administration (2020). “Air Traffic by the Numbers.”
• National Transportation Safety Board reported that weather is a primary contributing factor in 23% of all aviation accidents in 2003. – Kulesa, G. (2003). Weather And Aviation: How Does Weather Affect The Safety And Operations Of Airports And Aviation, And How Does Faa Work To Manage Weather-related Effects? 

References

• Federal Aviation Administration (2020). “Air Traffic by the Numbers.”
• Jones, Tammy L. (2020) Fact sheet – inclement weather. Federal Aviation Administration, Retrieved Feb 29, 2021
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2007, August). National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation (FCM-P35-2007). Department of Commerce.
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2007, August). National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation (FCM-P35-2007). Department of Commerce.
• Federal Aviation Administration (2020). “Air Traffic by the Numbers.”
• Kulesa, G. (2003). Weather And Aviation: How Does Weather Affect The Safety And Operations Of Airports And Aviation, And How Does Faa Work To Manage Weather-related Effects?

Space Weather

Space weather describes the variations in the space environment between the sun and Earth caused by activity on the sun’s surface. In particular the term space weather describes phenomena that impact technologies in orbit and on Earth, such as satellites or the electric grid. Different types of space weather can affect different systems on Earth.

NOAA’s Role:

• The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), which is part of the National Weather Service, provides historical data and real time information and predictions that allow affected industries to make defensive investments, take mitigating actions, prevent service interruptions, and reduce adverse health effects related to significant solar events. 
• The majority of the space weather products and services used to plan for and mitigate the consequences of space weather events are created by using critical space based observations from the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services (NOAA/NESDIS) and its partners. – Abt Associates (2017). Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather in the United States. US Department of Commerce, NOAA National Weather Service: 70.
• A 2020 study of the NOAA SWPC’s contributions to the electric power industry found that the value of the information provided by SWPC for a single event would depend on the magnitude of the geomagnetic disturbance. The study estimated that the value could range from $100 million, for a small event, up to $27 billion for a very large (but unlikely) event. – Eastern Research Group (2020) Economic Benefit Analysis of NOAA’s Space Weather Products and Services to the Electric Power Industry.  US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service.

Why It Matters

• A significant space weather event can affect many of the modern technologies we rely on, including the electric grid, aviation, communication technologies (i.e. your mobile phone), global navigation satellite systems (e.g. GPS), other commercial and government satellite systems. – Abt Associates (2017). Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather in the United States. Commerce, NOAA National Weather Service: 70. and National Research Council (2008). Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC, The National Academies Press.
• Space weather can cause radio blackouts, solar radiation storms and Geomagnetic storms. There have been several notable space weather events in the last 200 years including the famous “Carrington” event in 1859, as well as others that have been observed or caused notable disruptions in 1921, 1967, 1989, 2003 and 2012. – Eastwood, J. P., E. Biffis, M. A. Hapgood, L. Green, M. M. Bisi, R. D. Bentley, R. Wicks, L‐A. McKinnell, M. Gibbs, and C. Burnett. ‘The economic impact of space weather: Where do we stand?.’ Risk Analysis 37, no. 2 (2017): 206-218.
• A model of the effects of a power transmission system failure on global supply chains for severe space weather like the 1989 Quebec event estimated global economic impacts ranging from $2.4-$3.4 trillion over a year. This analysis modeled direct and indirect losses using input-output modeling. – den Baeumen HSI, Moran D, Lenzen M, Cairns I, Steenge A. How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2014; 14(10):2749–2759.
• A 2016 report estimated a range of US insurance industry losses based on three different large-scale solar event scenarios. Estimated losses ranged from $55.0 to $333.7 billion. At the low end, this is roughly double the insurance payouts of either Hurricane Katrina or Superstorm Sandy. – Oughton, E. J., J. Copic, A. Skelton, V. Kesaite, J. Z. Yeo, S. J. Ruffle, M. Tuveson, A. W. Coburn, and D. Ralph (2016), Helios Solar Storm ScenarioRep., Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge Cambridge. and Oughton, E. J., A. Skelton, R. B. Horne, A. W. P. Thomson, and C. T. Gaunt (2017), Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure, Space Weather, 15(1), 65-83, doi:10.1002/2016SW001491.
• Satellites are vulnerable to significant solar events. One attempt to quantify losses that would be associated with a 1859-calibre superstorm estimates $70bn in costs due to lost revenue and satellite replacement caused by solar power erosion, orbit decay, and other issues. – Odenwald S, Green J, Taylor W. Forecasting the impact of an 1859-calibre superstorm on satellite resources. Advances in Space Research, 2006; 38:280–297.
• Space weather impacts are not necessarily restricted to catastrophic effects. Insurance claim information suggests that the losses to the U.S. power grid from non-catastrophic disturbances from geomagnetically induced currents “may be $5 – $10 bn/year.”- Schrijver CJ, Dobbins R, Murtagh W, Petrinec SM. Assessing the impact of space weather on the electric power grid based on insurance claims for industrial electrical equipment. Space Weather. 2014; 12(7):487–498.
• 4% of the disturbances to the power grid created by voltage instability between 1992 and 2010 reported to the U.S. Department of Energy are attributable to strong geomagnetic activity.- E. Biffis, M. A. Hapgood, L. Green, M. M. Bisi, R. D. Bentley, R. Wicks, L‐A. McKinnell, M. Gibbs, and C. Burnett. ‘The economic impact of space weather: Where do we stand?.’ Risk Analysis 37, no. 2 (2017): 206-218.

References

• Abt Associates (2017). Social and Economic Impacts of Space Weather in the United States. US Department of Commerce, NOAA National Weather Service: 70.
• Eastern Research Group (2020) Economic Benefit Analysis of NOAA’s Space Weather Products and Services to the Electric Power Industry.  US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service.
• National Research Council (2008). Severe Space Weather Events: Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC, The National Academies Press.
• Eastwood, J. P., E. Biffis, M. A. Hapgood, L. Green, M. M. Bisi, R. D. Bentley, R. Wicks, L‐A. McKinnell, M. Gibbs, and C. Burnett. ‘The economic impact of space weather: Where do we stand?.’ Risk Analysis 37, no. 2 (2017): 206-218.
• den Baeumen HSI, Moran D, Lenzen M, Cairns I, Steenge A. How severe space weather can disrupt global supply chains. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2014; 14(10):2749–2759.
• Oughton, E. J., J. Copic, A. Skelton, V. Kesaite, J. Z. Yeo, S. J. Ruffle, M. Tuveson, A. W. Coburn, and D. Ralph (2016), Helios Solar Storm ScenarioRep., Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge Cambridge.
• Oughton, E. J., A. Skelton, R. B. Horne, A. W. P. Thomson, and C. T. Gaunt (2017), Quantifying the daily economic impact of extreme space weather due to failure in electricity transmission infrastructure, Space Weather, 15(1), 65-83, doi:10.1002/2016SW001491.
• Odenwald S, Green J, Taylor W. Forecasting the impact of an 1859-calibre superstorm on satellite resources. Advances in Space Research, 2006; 38:280–297.
• Schrijver CJ, Dobbins R, Murtagh W, Petrinec SM. Assessing the impact of space weather on the electric power grid based on insurance claims for industrial electrical equipment. Space Weather. 2014; 12(7):487–498.

Winter Weather

Winter storms bring snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the entire United States and its territories. Even Hawaii gets snow on its Big Island. On the mainland, snow and ice paralyzed major cities as far south as Atlanta and Dallas. Blizzards occur when strong wind causes blowing snow and whiteout conditions, making roads impassable. Thousands of people are injured or killed every year in traffic accidents related to slippery roads from winter storms. More information can be found at weather.gov.

NOAA’s Role

• A Nor’easter, a storm along the East Coast of North America, gets its name from the winds over the coastal area that are typically from the northeast. These storms may happen at any time of year but are most frequent and most violent between September and April. National Weather Service forecasters issue winter storm, blizzard, high wind, and coastal flood watches to alert the public of when conditions are conducive for Nor’easters.
• Heavy accumulations of ice can bring down trees and topple utility poles and communication towers. Ice can disrupt communications and power for days while utility companies repair extensive damage. Even small accumulations of ice can be extremely dangerous to motorists and pedestrians. Bridges and overpasses are particularly dangerous because they freeze before other surfaces. National Weather Service forecasts alert the public to potentially hazardous ice conditions to increase public safety and preparedness.
• Lake Effect Snow (1,2) is common across the Great Lakes region during the late fall and winter. Lake Effect snow occurs when cold air, often originating from Canada, moves across the open waters of the Great Lakes. Because the conditions producing the snow can persist for several days, snowfall amounts can be huge, often measured in feet and not inches. National Weather Service forecasts alert the public to the potential for extreme snowfall when conditions are conducive to Lake Effect snow. National Weather Service guidance helps people know what to do before, during, and after extremely cold weather.
• Extremely cold air comes every winter in at least part of the country. Millions of people are affected across the United States as Arctic air and brisk winds produce dangerously cold wind-chill values. Frostbite can occur in a matter of minutes to people exposed to extreme cold. Hypothermia–when the body loses heat faster than it can produce heat– is another threat during extreme cold. The National Weather Service provides forecasts and guidance on what to do before, during, and after extremely cold weather.
• In addition to its suite of forecasts, the National Weather Service provides other relevant information and interpretative services (Impact-Based Decision Support Services, or IDSS) to further reduce the effects of severe winter storms. 

Why It Matters

• Over the past 40 years, losses from the 26 most-costly winter storms–those with damages exceeding $1 billion each–totaled $81 billion (2020 dollars) and resulted in the loss of more than 1,200 lives. – Smith, A. (n.d.). Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: Summary stats. Retrieved Feb 20, 2021
• A 2016 study found that the interpretative services and other elements of Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS) provided by the National Weather Service enabled proactive decisions for two cases in New York City that reduced the cost of flight cancellations during severe winter storms  by about $20 million for similar severe storms. – Lazo, J. K., Hosterman, H. R., Sprague-Hilderbrand, J. M., & Adkins, J. E. (2020). Impact-Based Decision Support Services and the Socioeconomic Impacts of Winter Storms, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(5), E626-E639. 

References

• Smith, A. (n.d.). Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: Summary stats. Retrieved Feb 20, 2021
• Lazo, J. K., Hosterman, H. R., Sprague-Hilderbrand, J. M., & Adkins, J. E. (2020). Impact-Based Decision Support Services and the Socioeconomic Impacts of Winter Storms, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(5), E626-E639. 

Tsunamis

A tsunami is a series of extremely long waves caused by a large and sudden displacement of the ocean, usually the result of an earthquake below or near the ocean floor. This force creates waves that radiate outward in all directions away from their source, sometimes crossing entire ocean basins. Unlike wind-driven waves, which only travel through the topmost layer of the ocean, tsunamis move through the entire water column, from the ocean floor to the ocean surface. 

How devastating can a tsunami be?. On the morning of March 28, 1964, without warning, the largest recorded earthquake in U.S. history struck Alaska’s Prince William Sound. The 9.2 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunamis ravaged coastal communities and took over 139 lives. More information on this event can be found here.

NOAA’s Role

• To detect and observe tsunamis as they move across the ocean, NOAA depends on networks of seismic and sea-level observation systems. These networks are owned and operated by several domestic and international organizations, including NOAA. NOAA’s success in fulfilling this important mission relies on the ability to quickly detect a tsunami, which is accomplished through networks of advanced observation systems.
• From initial funding in 1996 to the present, a $10 million research and development effort has led to the invention of three generations of real-time deep-ocean tsunameters that have provided deep-ocean data from over 40 tsunamis. These tsunami data have been used to accelerate the verification and validation of tsunami forecast models that are now capable of forecasting tsunami time series and flooding at coastal communities with 80% accuracy. Accurate tsunami forecasts have improved public response to tsunamis by avoiding false alarms (i.e., 2009 Samoan tsunami) and advising appropriate evacuations (i.e., 2011 Japan tsunami). The economic benefit to Hawaii from more accurate tsunami forecasts has been the avoidance of at least three unnecessary evacuations (estimated cost avoidance of $200 million) and the saving of lives during the 2011 Japan tsunami evacuation. – E. N. Bernard and C. Meinig, ‘History and future of deep-ocean tsunami measurements,’ OCEANS’11 MTS/IEEE KONA, Waikoloa, HI, USA, 2011, pp. 1-7

Why It Matters

• Tsunamis can strike any U.S. coast, but risk is greatest for states and territories with Pacific and Caribbean coastlines. Low-lying areas such as beaches, bays, lagoons, harbors, river mouths, and areas along rivers and streams leading to the ocean are the most vulnerable. Tsunamis can happen any time, any season. They can be generated far away (across the ocean) or locally. Local tsunamis can arrive just minutes after generation. – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2007, August). National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation (FCM-P35-2007). Department of Commerce.
• A tsunami can be extremely dangerous to life and property on the coast. It can produce unusually strong currents, rapidly flood the land, and cause great destruction. The flow and force of the water and debris it carries can destroy boats, vehicles, and buildings; cause injuries; and take lives as the tsunami moves across land and returns to the sea. Dangerous currents and flooding may last for days. Even small tsunamis can be dangerous. Strong currents can injure and drown swimmers and damage or destroy boats in harbors. – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2007, August). National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation (FCM-P35-2007). Department of Commerce.

References

• E. N. Bernard and C. Meinig, ‘History and future of deep-ocean tsunami measurements,’ OCEANS’11 MTS/IEEE KONA, Waikoloa, HI, USA, 2011, pp. 1-7
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2007, August). National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation (FCM-P35-2007). Department of Commerce.